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  #1  
Old 02-24-2020, 10:23 PM
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Default Curious. Coronavirus

Any one worried about the corona virus and your LO/Friend/MWI being incarcerated? I have been seeing it on my news feed a lot
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Old 02-24-2020, 10:36 PM
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He is worried I might get it more so than himself
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Old 02-24-2020, 11:50 PM
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It’s never crossed my mind til now but I don’t think it will even reach him. He heard of the one person in Tempe and tried to tell me not to even go around that city. Lol.
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Old 02-25-2020, 01:17 PM
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No. The flu has already killed thousands more than Corona/Wuhan in the States. A facility with a positive virus patient will quarantine that person.
Corona (which a category of strains) is not any worse than typical strains of flu for MOST people. Many positive patients are asymptomatic. Older folks and those with immunosuppressed systems need to be as cautious about Wuhan as they do any other virus.
Fatalities have been primarily limited to those over the age of 65, with children proving to recover at the highest rate.
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Old 02-26-2020, 05:17 AM
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I am in Italy and we have here about 230 cases of infected people, 9 of them are now dead.
What strikes (and worries) is not the mortality rate, it's how fast the virus is spreading.
If they found one infected person in prison, they would have to quarantine the entire facility as well as the prison's staff that came in contact with the affected inmate.

Here in Northern Italy (where the virus hit first) schools are closed, public or private assemblies are banned and religious services are momentarily suspended as well.
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Old 02-26-2020, 12:26 PM
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first off, I am not a medical professional or nurse or working in a medical field. So these are just my observations after watching the news, some very good medical and epidemiological specialist youtube channels and reading a few scientific articles.

What I get from all this:
1. the transmissibility of the virus is exceptionally high. So it spreads like wildfire unless contained by extremely drastic quarantine measures (like China has taken, where tens of millions of people are essentially locked down at their homes or neighborhoods).
2. there is a significantly higher number of people than with the regular flu that will get so ill that they need critical and intensive hospital care. Like ventilation etc. Most will survive if they receive this care.

So it's a numbers game. Probably the vast majority of people (up to 90%?) will have a mild or tolerable form of the infection. But the higher the number of cases, the higher the number will be of severe cases needing critical care. So a large outbreak will quickly overwhelm even the best health care systems in the world. People that would otherwise survive with critical care won't get the care and that will lead to a significantly higher fatality rate.

Let's hope it can be contained and slowed as much as possible. An outbreak inside a prison is a nightmare scenario because of the ease of spread and potentially substandard care.

Last edited by marco1969; 02-26-2020 at 12:34 PM..
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Old 02-26-2020, 02:22 PM
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I work in public health policy as well as being immune - compromised ∴ I stay knowledgeable.

As this is a new strain, there are unanswered questions in regard to transmissibility. Scientists and researchers learn as they study cases and new developments. This will continue to change and amend due to the „life cycle” of this current virus.

However, some points are clear by now: the mortality rate remains extremely low at approximately 2%. This number increases to close to 50% for those elderly, weak, have co - morbidities and immune compromised. These are the cases where symptoms are severe, create pneumonia, viral multiplication at the rate incompatible with an immune system under attack, sepsis and then organ failure.

One point I learned from my own „ventilator experience” of the past is that when oxygen levels decrease due to a variety of causes of lung „failure” [not the correct word. . ., sorry], cardiac arrest occurs. This can be considered as well.

Lastly, there are countries with cases that have thus far only have cases from direct transmission in 1. severely affected countries [Iran & China] 2. people in direct contact [such as spouses] with the infected persons. From early on, countries that „seem to have it under control” implemented public health initiatives or screening early. As well, continue to amend it as more is learned about the virus. Due to this, I am not concerned though my city / area has 5 cases. Not one has been severe. However I know I will die if I contract it due to my immune status !

Another reason to not feel so panicked is that states that take proactive measures ahead of time are best suited to handle it. In Iran & China, the authoritarian government did not disclose with the public the concerns with the virus early on. At least here, there is an access to information. Further, in Iran, citizens did not believe the government’s view of the virus due to „the other recent political crisis.” ∴ lots of time to spread from the important transit point of Qom. Lastly, Italy acknowledged that it mismanaged the treatment of the first case and did not pursue isolation.

There is news of it being labeled a pandemic as it has an expanded spread. However, with what we know, for those strong and healthy, it looks manageable if managed properly by local health authorities. It is the cases of the weak that are of concern. For context, 650.000 ppl die annually from influenza but this is common „ not new ”.
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Old 02-26-2020, 11:07 PM
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I think that in prison people are more safe than people on the outside. Coronovirus transmits from person to person. usually if a person travels outside the u.s and bring it to the country. I am more worried about the flu because that is so much easier to catch and pass.
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Old 02-27-2020, 04:49 AM
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In my town (near Milan - Italy), schools are closed, shops and public offices have limitations, supermarkets are coming to normality (but you can't find hands sanitizer or alcool), restaurants and cafè are less frequented, open markets are prohibited.
We don't understand why if is a normal bad flu, there is so many pshycological terrorism. And if not, why there is no two professional persons who say the same information.
I heard by tv that problem is that government wants to protect elderly people or already sick persons (the one really in danger) but I don't know. And in Italy we have more infected because we are doing more checks. As said, I don't know if true or false.

Now, the prison. As I live outside the USA and I am not sure how much and how Corona virus has explained to people there, I don't want to worry my friend. Until now, I've never mentioned it to him. I hope that he is safe where he is. And I hope that he is in good health (as much as possible!) to eventually face with every flu and illness.
I am quite sure that he is safe. I mean, many people here is positive to the virus but they are good. I'm more worried about the news rather than the virus same.
I also think that being stressed is a way to get ill more quickly. So, I prefer to stay silent with him until it's possible.
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Old 02-27-2020, 07:21 AM
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This is not a normal bad flu, Silvia.

Have you ever seen schools/museums/churches closed for a normal bad flu?
I have not in 39 years.

This is quite serious.
There is no medication, no vaccine.
It spreads too fast compared to what health facilities are ready to face.
If everyone in our region was to get the virus, hospitals would not have enough capacity to hospitalize the percentage of people who needs treatment that cannot be administered at home.

But what happens we are going to see over the next couple of weeks.
The spreading is due to reach its peak and after that, hopefully, it'll slow down.
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Old 02-27-2020, 07:40 AM
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Right now, the odds of having people from afflicted countries exposed to the virus [even visitors] coming into the prison system one way or another is very, very slim.

In order for it to reach that point [entry into the prisons], it has to become a case of community transmission. That has occurred in China [+ Hong Kong], Iran, Japan, Singapore, S. Korea, and parts of Italy.

It has not occurred yet in the USA [or Canada for that matter.] And so, that means, we are have lots of adequate time for preparation based on epidemiological assessments.

Once a comprehensive pandemic response plan is set in place, then regulations for public institutions such as schools, hospitals, government buildings and — yes — prisons is instituted. Frameworks of these plans are available at the policy / decision making level but are then tailored for the specific virus. The local health authorities are often the key elements in such planning as they see the patients, understand the rate of transmission in their own communities and settings and ask those higher up for resources.

Yes, we are all aware that prison health care is subpar, however, they do have pandemic planning policies. The most accessible or understandable example of this are the times influenza spread through an institution [NOT a pandemic, but example] and certain precautions are put in place [sadly, like lockdowns.]

This is prior to my emigration, in 2009, but in CAN, policy suggested that prisoners be a priority group for H1N1 vaccinations, but it fell through cause the public was angry. This one again touches upon the need for education in why this could potentially have wider benefits in communities. I have an academic paper stored that discusses this and it makes sense.

Since it is aerial transmission [coughing & sneezing], the same old advice remains true: cover your mouth when you sneeze/cough, wash your hands often, do not touch your mouth, nose, eyes, if you are sick ring your doc and avoid people, as well, be wary of crowds or public transportation [cramped spaces.] Since prisoners don’t have the opportunity to get out of cramped spaces, they can at least have good hygiene for the time being prior to any plan implementation.
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Old 02-27-2020, 08:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by +VERDE+ View Post
There is no medication, no vaccine.
It spreads too fast compared to what health facilities are ready to face.
If everyone in our region was to get the virus, hospitals would not have enough capacity to hospitalize the percentage of people who needs treatment that cannot be administered at home.
I am not trying to nitpick as there is a lot of fear and many, many afflicted people, but clinical studies are going on right now in USA & China with the anti - viral Remdesivir. It has demonstrated some positive results in the treatment of SARS and MERS — other forms of coronaviruses. The main issue here is that we do not have Chinese data [as they are the epicentre & have the most patients] to learn from their expertise & what worked. There may be some thing at the clinical level by the time this current surge subsides.

But, it is the same sorts of intervention with ANY respiratory viruses: treat the symptoms to keep the patient comfortable / strong while the immune system functions naturally. In the COVID-19 case, that is especially difficult for the weak / co - morbidity group / immune - compromised as the virus multiplies faster than a weakened immune system can react. Many people with the virus have symptoms of the common cold or asymptotic and stay at home. It the asymptomatic people [carriers] that are most concerning.

And it is true that hospitals will not have capacity, but, that is why governments are examining their pandemic planning right now. When there is an overflow of cases requiring hospitalisation, public assets such as school gyms, stadiums, halls are set up to treat the non - severe cases so those that require intensive medical monitoring, who remain in the hospital setting. Planning does not often result in perfect execution but it does get better when the kinks are worked out technically.

As for hospitals, the main issue for treating the severe cases may not be bed space in certain cases. It is lack of equipment and the shortage is due to the situation in China. And so, it is difficult to acquire things like ventilators.
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Old 02-27-2020, 11:28 AM
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Pence just got the nod to deal with the virus in the US. Pence. Google his response to HIV for more fun.

Japan is trying hard to make sure that the Olympics do not get cancelled this summer because of the virus.

Personally, my grandparents got through the Spanish Flu of 1918. My grandmother caught it and survived. My Granddad did not get it. Their letters from that era are scary as hell - the number of friends that died, the inability of the funerary businesses to handle the bodies, etc. This is the picture we need to avoid. But, Pence.... if you do not believe in science, you should not be in control of anything to do with science.

Right now, we are not in the Decameron sort of situation (Decameron - where a bunch of people hid out from the Black Death and told each other stories to pass the time until the plague burned itself out). Right now, we need to demand more from our government, avoid their conspiracy theories, and verify information before acting.

Prisons are prisons. There are people coming into and going out of prisons all the time. With CO wages so low, the people you have to worry about are the people who cannot afford to stay home sick, or the visitors who cannot afford to delay a visit. But even that is a bit far away at present.

Yes, the virus is in the US, but very limited at present. Hopefully it stays that way.
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Old 02-27-2020, 01:24 PM
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Wasn't the corona virus originally created in a laboratory in Wuhan China? It was stated on the news that the official outbreak was first detected in a local seafood market place in Wuhan just meters or blocks away from the laboratory which was a high security level 4 bio-safety laboratory . It was also mentioned that several of the scientists who had worked in the laboratory had died from coming into contact with the virus. It was also claimed that the scientist that first came forth with the news of the virus was arrested to gag him from creating world wide hysteria but he too had died in hospital from the virus. (i'm only going by what was stated on the news)

Obviously because i can't provide proof of what i heard on the news i could at least offer a link it's also suggested that the virus was extracted from bats
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...reak-s-origins

Last edited by Born; 02-27-2020 at 01:32 PM.. Reason: found a link to add to my post
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Old 02-27-2020, 02:01 PM
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No, some of the points you mention are those mentioned by conspiracy theorists. Which news sources? The WHO [World Health Organization] gives daily press conferences that appear on major networks and transcripts provided to the public and not such an instance has been mentioned.

The family of coronaviruses have zoonotic origins in certain animals [birds, bats, rodents, bovine, feline and canine] that act as a reservoir for transmission. It was not „created in a lab” but rather found in animals at the market mentioned destined for plates. These animals often have these viruses and transmit them amongst themselves, but it is not a problem until we come into close contact with them or eat them.

A mutation in the virus — as viruses mutate over their development — allowed the animal to human transmission. Genetic testing is being done to detect the DNA of the virus to single out the animal source. At one point, it was snakes. Then bats. Then pangolins. All are close but not an identical match. The SARS outbreak is thought to be sourced to civets just as MERS had been linked to camels.

The „scientist” that you mention was actually an ophthalmologist named Li Wenliang who treated patients in hospital. Yes, he had to sign a form by the authorities to not cause „public panic” and yes, he passed away. His death angered the people, thus further censorship was applied. This was referenced prior by the mention of authoritarian governments downplaying the issue.

The fact that China is indeed involved with finding the source animal as well as instituting a ban on the sale of wildlife shows where the real problem is and not in a laboratory creation. This scenario always seems to pop up by unscientific minds.

This is a new STRAIN of a virus but the family of coronaviruses and link to animals has been known for over 50 years. Public health agencies are much more aware of how to manage this outbreak than they were of the SARS of the early 2000s.
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Old 02-27-2020, 02:06 PM
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[quote=Ne Plach’;7811955]No, some of the points you mention are those mentioned by conspiracy theorists. Which news sources? The WHO [World Health Organization] gives daily press conferences that appear on major networks and transcripts provided to the public and not such an instance has been mentioned.

Our local News here in Oz. It was the ABC nightly news.
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Old 02-27-2020, 02:13 PM
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Ok sorry, not created in a lab but extracted from bats and the scientists were trying to recreate it in a petri dish.
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Old 02-27-2020, 02:18 PM
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Quote:
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Our local News here in Oz. It was the ABC nightly news.
Could it be that you misinterpreted the reporting? As it was a big deal that Aussie scientists were able to create a copy for study in a lab.

The claim is similar to the op - ed by Steven Mosher who did that: express opinion and based it off open source information.
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Old 02-27-2020, 02:27 PM
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Quote:
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Could it be that you misinterpreted the reporting? As it was a big deal that Aussie scientists were able to create a copy for study in a lab.

The claim is similar to the op - ed by Steven Mosher who did that: express opinion and based it off open source information.
No, I don't believe that i misinterpreted anything. I listened intently to what was being stated. And Yes Australia is in the process of trying to create a vaccine for the virus. I'm not sure what the timeline was but i think that they stated three months.
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Old 02-28-2020, 12:59 AM
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[quote=Ne Plach’;7811955]
"The „scientist” that you mention was actually an ophthalmologist named Li Wenliang who treated patients in hospital. Yes, he had to sign a form by the authorities to not cause „public panic” and yes, he passed away. His death angered the people, thus further censorship was applied. This was referenced prior by the mention of authoritarian governments downplaying the issue."


The ophthalmologist Li Wenliang was the one who reported that the virus was not just limited to inhalation through the nose and mouth which causes respiratory problems and or pneumonia, but also through the eyes. Inotherwords he was the one who found and reported that the viral strain was travelling through the body by the eyes, and requested that anyone who comes into contact with the sick should wear proper masks and eye-wear to guard against infection . That was how he contracted the coronavirus and was how he died.

Our channel nine news has just broadcasted that the coronavirus has now become a pandemic.

Last edited by Born; 02-28-2020 at 01:11 AM.. Reason: Spelling error correction
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:18 AM
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As not to further stir fear amongst people, the fact that COVID-19 can be transmitted by way of the eyes is NOT NEW. The eyes — and touching them — have long been mentioned as a pathway for pathogens.

Article from the Lancet in regard to influenza: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6035055/
Avian and human influenza A viruses alike have shown a capacity to use the eye as a portal of entry and cause ocular disease in human beings. However, whereas influenza viruses generally represent a respiratory pathogen and only occasionally cause ocular complications, the H7 virus subtype stands alone in possessing an ocular tropism.

Fact sheet on the common cold:
https://www.ccohs.ca/oshanswers/dise...mmon_cold.html
You can catch a cold if you handle something that is contaminated with a cold virus and then stick your contaminated finger up your nose or rub your eyes. The cold viruses can reach the nose when you rub your eyes because the virus can be passed down the tear ducts that go from the eyes into the nasal cavities.

This is why health officials at every level repeat the same advice at every press conference related to coronavirus virus. Wash your hands, don’t touch your face [eyes, nose & mouth], cough or sneeze into your sleeve, avoid people when you are sick & ring the doctor.

All of these are common - sense precautions.

** Edited Point: Those of you sick of my technical droning on this subject will be pleased to know I will stop this morning — immune - compromised & going on an international flight, especially to a place with less then stellar hospitals. Not fearful, but precautious, as we all should be.

Last edited by Ne Plach’; 02-28-2020 at 07:35 AM.. Reason: Additional point
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Old 02-28-2020, 08:32 AM
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CA just had its first person with the virus, and they cannot figure out how she contracted it. No overseas travel or known contact with someone who had.


Personally Im not willing to panic yet, but still try to take the mentioned precautions.
Wash hands regularly, dont touch your face.
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Old 02-28-2020, 03:21 PM
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Remember that a positive case does not mean a fatality. It means they tested positive. They may not have been any more symptomatic than a low-grade fever and fatigue. Take the same precautions you typically do. If you're feeling poorly and can afford to, stay home. If you have to go out, wear a mask whether you're feeling poorly or not. People might look at you twice, so what. Folks like Ne Plach and I wear them all of the time. We make them look good.
Truthfully, I wouldn't panic over this if/when it hits my state. It may transmit easily, but having survived H1N1 and having lost a friend to it I'm acutely aware that there's only so much you can do and the majority of it lies in prevention, not panic.
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Old 02-29-2020, 07:45 AM
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Apparently now there is another one in CA they cant figure out how it was contracted.
The first one who had this happen is not in good shape.



I think the part that is the frightening part is......you may not show symptoms, yet carry the virus.
Its a bit unclear why they are being tested, so I dont know.
Still not panicking.


Now let me tell you.......should I get it? it will truly be a mystery. Zero travel. very very little contact with others beside my family (who also dont travel)
I dont think the threat is overblown, but the panic IS.
Just stay home if you are sick, and wash your hands, and keep them off your face.


I will say this tho........if this got into the prisons? Holy crap. Can you imagine it?
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Old 02-29-2020, 09:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jordan321 View Post
Any one worried about the corona virus and your LO/Friend/MWI being incarcerated? I have been seeing it on my news feed a lot

I'm very worried about it. They aren't dong any visitor screening. I worry about flu every flu season, too. It has a higher mortality rate (around 6%) than it's cousin, coronavirus (around 2%). Prison's a perfect environment to spread every imaginable contagious diseases and medical care isn't all that great.
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